Much
of the debate over Scottish independence has focused on whether the
Scots would be better off in or out of the United Kingdom. With the
Sept. 18 Scottish referendum now only seven months off, Prime Minister
David Cameron of Britain has raised another critical question: Would Britain be better off without Scotland?
His
resounding and even emotional answer in a speech last week, formally
opening his government’s pro-union campaign, was that after 300 years,
Britain would be “deeply diminished” without Scotland. Whatever Scots
may think of Mr. Cameron, and polls suggest it’s not much, the question
he raises is not one they should dismiss.
In
effect, Mr. Cameron has declared — somewhat as Canada did in the 1990s,
when Quebec was voting on independence — that whether Scotland stays or
leaves affects all Britain — England, Wales and Northern Ireland as
well as Scotland. Minus the Scots, Mr. Cameron argued, the “powerful”
United Kingdom brand would be diminished, a notion he theatrically
underscored by making his speech in the Olympic Park in East London on
the opening day of the Winter Games in Sochi, Russia, and recalling the
essential role of Scottish athletes on what was billed as “Team G.B.,”
for Great Britain. (Mr. Cameron should recall some of his phrases — like
“we matter more in the world together” — when it comes time to prepare
for the referendum he has pledged on whether Britain should remain in
the European Union.)
Certainly
the debate over the economic advantages and disadvantages of separation
should be an important factor in how the Scots vote. But independence
goes far beyond that, and another people who broke away from Britain
cautioned in their Declaration of Independence that “governments long
established should not be changed for light and transient causes.”
Any
serious debate on secession — whether in Scotland, Catalonia or Quebec —
should focus not only on economic calculations, but, as Mr. Cameron
urged, on whether breaking one great state into two lesser states is
better for either. Scotland, moreover, has achieved considerable
autonomy within Britain, including its own elected assembly in addition
to seats in the British Parliament.
Of
course, the economic issues will be a major factor for the four million
or so Scottish voters who will decide their fate. Alex Salmond, the
first minister of Scotland who is leading the independence drive,
invokes a Scotland that has its own place in the European Union yet
retains the British pound as its currency. But the chancellor of the
Exchequer, George Osborne, has ruled out a currency union, and
membership in the European Union would require lengthy negotiations. And
then there is the fact that smaller members, including Ireland, have
not fared well in recent years.
So,
as the countdown begins for the fateful vote, the Scots should
certainly weigh the potential economic consequences, but also the pros
and cons of dropping out of “Team G.B.”
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