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Catalonia's European Election Litmus Test

European Parliament Election on Sunday Will Serve as a Test of Strength for Secessionist Parties

By

Matt Moffett

connect

May 23, 2014 10:34 a.m. ET

People hold placards to form a giant Catalan separatist flag, or "Estelada", in front of Sant Feliu townhall, near Barcelona, in February. Reuters

 

MADRID—Sunday's European Parliament election will serve as a test of strength for secessionist parties in Catalonia, amid a rancorous debate over the wealthy region's proposed referendum on independence from Spain.

The voting in Catalonia, which features a highly polarized electorate and faltering establishment political parties, will be watched in Spain as closely as the battle between conservatives and socialists at a national level. Catalonia generates about one-quarter of Spain's exports and the maneuvering around the proposed Nov. 9 non-binding referendum is expected to dominate the national political debate in the second half of this year.

Pro-referendum parties, led by the governing Convergence and Union coalition and the Republican Left of Catalonia, garnered more than 50% of the vote in a recent poll by the Metroscopia agency. Though abstention is expected to be significant, the results are "going to be very much read as a mini-referendum," on independence, said Andrew Dowling, a specialist on Catalan and Spanish politics at Cardiff University.

Carles Boix, a Princeton University political scientist who favors independence, said Catalonia's turnout in the previous European election, in 2009, was lower than the Spanish average, so if turnout is higher this time, that would give the result more weight.

Catalan secessionists contend that Madrid siphons off their tax revenue without respecting their language and culture. The central government says that it has given Catalonia plenty of help during the economic crisis, and maintains that the proposed November referendum would be unconstitutional.

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Protesters blocked the car of Spanish Minister of Finance and Public Administrations, Cristobal Montoro, as he left a rally of the People's Party in Vilanova i la Geltru, Catalonia. Zuma Press

The most recent campaign has had tense moments. On Wednesday a group of protesters hurled rocks and bottles at a car carrying Cristobal Montoro, the budget minister, and Alicia Sánchez-Camacho, the leader of the Catalan branch of the conservative Popular Party, which governs nationally and opposes independence. A Popular Party statement said there have been more than a dozen incidents of harassment at its campaign events, and accused independence activists of stoking conflict.

Among the most striking poll findings is the weakness of long-dominant parties. Support for Convergence and Union has slipped, and backing for two anti-independence parties, the Popular Party and the Socialist Party, has declined markedly since 2009. There has also been a corresponding rise of the Republican Left and the anti-independence Citizens' Party. Republican Left, which has long advocated independence, is projected by Metroscopia to garner more votes than Convergence and Union, which has only recently embraced that goal. If Republican Left tops the balloting, it would be the first time since the 1930s that has happened in Catalonia.

A strong Republican Left result could also raise dissension within Convergence and Union and undermine the position of Catalonia's president, Artur Mas, some analysts say.

"Mas could be weakened and might have less control over determining the political calendar" including whether to hold off calling new regional elections until the scheduled end of his term in 2016, said Joaquim Coll, a historian who opposes independence.

In a recent campaign swing, Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy played up warnings from officials of the European Union that an independent Catalonia would be forced out of the EU and made to apply for membership. Mr. Rajoy said he desired "a united, Spanish and European Catalonia and not one out of the world and isolated."

After Sunday's vote, analysts expect Mr. Rajoy to try and head off the referendum by sending out feelers about some kind of negotiated settlement, perhaps a new fiscal pact that would improve Catalonia's revenue split. The Catalonia regional government says some 43 cents of every euro the region pays in taxes doesn't come home.

But Mr. Dowling said he doesn't think that will end the conflict at a time when many Catalans are clamoring for nothing less than a full break with Spain.

"A new financial arrangement is what Catalans were talking about in 2010 and 2011," he said. "But the debate has moved on and the question is whether that's too little too late."